☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
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Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
Poisonblade escribió:Itlotg escribió:Poisonblade escribió:Noticias que podrían ir al otro hilo.
https://www.diariovasco.com/sociedad/salud/pfizer-aumentara-produccion-20210101123131-ntrc.html
https://www.europapress.es/internacional/noticia-reino-unido-cerrara-todas-escuelas-primaria-londres-contener-expansion-coronavirus-20210102030943.html
DOS MILLONES DE VACUNAS SEMANALES
Por otra parte, según 'The Times', la vacuna de AstraZeneca y Oxford tendrá una distribución de unos dos millones de dosis semanales.
Con esto se podría acelerar mucho la vacunación. Y no se si UK tiene prioridad con Oxford, pero 2 millones semanales me parecen muchas, si juntamos Moderna y Pfizer...
Necesitaríamos unas 200 semanas para inmunizar toda Europa.....
Yo entiendo que son para UK esos 2 millones, pero me parecen muchas dosis.
40 semanas en ese caso, es que ami no me cuadran los números ni tanto optimismo con las vacunas
Itlotg- Mensajes : 18300
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Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
Pero vamos a ver... que yo he visto carpas del azkena en mucha peor condicion
Dumbie- Mensajes : 36296
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Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
Dumbie escribió:Pero vamos a ver... que yo he visto carpas del azkena en mucha peor condicion
Hay gente que se lleva el plato de casa, no te digo más.
_________________
freakedu- Moderador
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Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
Itlotg escribió:Poisonblade escribió:Itlotg escribió:Poisonblade escribió:Noticias que podrían ir al otro hilo.
https://www.diariovasco.com/sociedad/salud/pfizer-aumentara-produccion-20210101123131-ntrc.html
https://www.europapress.es/internacional/noticia-reino-unido-cerrara-todas-escuelas-primaria-londres-contener-expansion-coronavirus-20210102030943.html
DOS MILLONES DE VACUNAS SEMANALES
Por otra parte, según 'The Times', la vacuna de AstraZeneca y Oxford tendrá una distribución de unos dos millones de dosis semanales.
Con esto se podría acelerar mucho la vacunación. Y no se si UK tiene prioridad con Oxford, pero 2 millones semanales me parecen muchas, si juntamos Moderna y Pfizer...
Necesitaríamos unas 200 semanas para inmunizar toda Europa.....
Yo entiendo que son para UK esos 2 millones, pero me parecen muchas dosis.
40 semanas en ese caso, es que ami no me cuadran los números ni tanto optimismo con las vacunas
Atilano666- Mensajes : 1644
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Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
Dumbie escribió:Pero vamos a ver... que yo he visto carpas del azkena en mucha peor condicion
Varias.
Me escandaliza el escándalo.
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Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
Pero hay más vacunas, tres de momento, y otras dos que creo que se esperan en los siguientes meses. Y los menores me parece que no se vacunan. Ya solo inmunizando a los mayores de 60 bajarán drásticamente los fallecidos, teniendo en cuenta que la edad media son 86 años.
Poisonblade- Mensajes : 55529
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Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
Poisonblade escribió:Pero hay más vacunas, tres de momento, y otras dos que creo que se esperan en los siguientes meses. Y los menores me parece que no se vacunan. Ya solo inmunizando a los mayores de 60 bajarán drásticamente los fallecidos, teniendo en cuenta que la edad media son 86 años.
Ponlo en el de noticias positivas.
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Atilano666- Mensajes : 1644
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Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
Poisonblade escribió:Pero hay más vacunas, tres de momento, y otras dos que creo que se esperan en los siguientes meses. Y los menores me parece que no se vacunan. Ya solo inmunizando a los mayores de 60 bajarán drásticamente los fallecidos, teniendo en cuenta que la edad media son 86 años.
Y de todas esas vacunas que se estaban fabricando de antemano para tener suministro suficiente si salía bien la cosa, ¿se sabe algo? ¿Es lo que están distribuyendo ahora o es de alguna vacuna que todavía no está aprobada del todo?
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freakedu- Moderador
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Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
https://twitter.com/punsix/status/1345321432939692032
ksmith- Mensajes : 9322
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Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
El Correo"la pandemia continua ganando terreno en Euskadi",llevamos dias o semanas asi titulando y las UCIS van para abajo,¿a que se debe?
terremoto73- Mensajes : 13190
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Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
ksmith escribió:https://twitter.com/punsix/status/1345321432939692032
- Spoiler:
- Sound sixtems?
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freakedu- Moderador
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Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
ksmith escribió:https://twitter.com/punsix/status/1345321432939692032
No solo tenían el propósito de divertirse en compañía, algo siempre loable. Sino que además parece que con ese acto querían reivindicar una causa que consideran justa. Y luego dirán que la juventud es egoísta y no está comprometida.
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Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
terremoto73 escribió:El Correo"la pandemia continua ganando terreno en Euskadi",llevamos dias o semanas asi titulando y las UCIS van para abajo,¿a que se debe?
Realmente no ha habido una ligera subida de casos hasta hace una semana aproximadamente. Se supone que el impacto en UCIs se puede empezar a notar a partir de los 10 días. Veremos. A ver si la subida empieza en el punto más bajo posible.
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Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
Zoetrope escribió:ksmith escribió:https://twitter.com/punsix/status/1345321432939692032
No solo tenían el propósito de divertirse en compañía, algo siempre loable. Sino que además parece que con ese acto querían reivindicar una causa que consideran justa. Y luego dirán que la juventud es egoísta y no está comprometida.
Juventud... Viendo las imágenes de 40 años bajaban pocos...
Langarica- Mensajes : 13624
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Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
Langarica escribió:Zoetrope escribió:ksmith escribió:https://twitter.com/punsix/status/1345321432939692032
No solo tenían el propósito de divertirse en compañía, algo siempre loable. Sino que además parece que con ese acto querían reivindicar una causa que consideran justa. Y luego dirán que la juventud es egoísta y no está comprometida.
Juventud... Viendo las imágenes de 40 años bajaban pocos...
Yo la juventud no sé ya como se mide, tampoco he visto las imágenes, todo hay que decirlo, lo que he leído por aquí.
Zoetrope- Mensajes : 18156
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Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
freakedu escribió:
- Spoiler:
Sound sixtems?
Así se les llama a los que llevan lo de la música en tinglados de estos
Rikileaks- Mensajes : 82889
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Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
terremoto73 escribió:El Correo"la pandemia continua ganando terreno en Euskadi",llevamos dias o semanas asi titulando y las UCIS van para abajo,¿a que se debe?
Mientras se sigan haciendo titulares de "la incidencia acumulada sigue aumentando" no tenemos nada que hacer. Igual alguien en TVE o algo así podía hacer un programa para luchar contra el anumerismo.
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freakedu- Moderador
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Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
Rikileaks escribió:freakedu escribió:
- Spoiler:
Sound sixtems?
Así se les llama a los que llevan lo de la música en tinglados de estos
Se ha cambiado de sound systems por alguna razón?
_________________
freakedu- Moderador
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Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
Qué despierten, que nosotros no podemos dormir.
txemarifk- Mensajes : 1209
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Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
freakedu escribió:Rikileaks escribió:freakedu escribió:
- Spoiler:
Sound sixtems?
Así se les llama a los que llevan lo de la música en tinglados de estos
Se ha cambiado de sound systems por alguna razón?
El sistema, es mucho malo.
txemarifk- Mensajes : 1209
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Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
https://twitter.com/hrundiv/status/1345138004143337478?s=19
Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
terremoto73 escribió:El Correo"la pandemia continua ganando terreno en Euskadi",llevamos dias o semanas asi titulando y las UCIS van para abajo,¿a que se debe?
A que son unos hijos de puta. Llevan así desde marzo.
Ashra- Mensajes : 20080
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Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
Ashra escribió:terremoto73 escribió:El Correo"la pandemia continua ganando terreno en Euskadi",llevamos dias o semanas asi titulando y las UCIS van para abajo,¿a que se debe?
A que son unos hijos de puta. Llevan así desde marzo.
Primer resultado de buscar "sigue aumentando la incidencia acumulada":
La incidencia acumulada de covid sigue aumentando en Carral y repunta en Culleredo, Oleiros y A Coruña
https://www.lavozdegalicia.es/noticia/coruna/coruna/2020/12/23/incidencia-acumulada-covid-sigue-aumentando-carral-repunta-culleredo-oleiros-coruna/00031608718808465127644.htm
Y así te puedes hinchar.
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freakedu- Moderador
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Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
Si no es la incidencia, es el total de positivos. Y si no, los ingresos. O las UCIS. Y si todo falla, pues pones que hay una desaceleración en el descenso. Lo que sea. Pero nada que pueda dar una imagen positiva.
Ashra- Mensajes : 20080
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Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
txemarifk escribió:Qué despierten, que nosotros no podemos dormir.
Hombre, con tanta coca despierta cualquiera
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Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
Yo es que simplemente no entiendo cómo pueden vendernos una situación catastrófica cuando hemos bajado tanto los casos.
Si os fijáis, hace 1-2 meses estábamos fatal en comparación con los datos de ahora.
Fuente: https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa
Y no me vale la excusa de que ha habido menos tests por ser festivos:
1- porque no todos los días han sido festivos en las últimas semanas, y aun así los datos han sido mucho más bajos,
2- si tenemos en cuenta hasta el 18 de diciembre (que no había tantas vacaciones y festivos aún), los casos diarios ya estaban en menos de 10.000 diarios.
3- ha habido miles de tests PCR que la gente se ha hecho voluntariamente, especialmente en la sanidad privada (hay que tener en cuenta que esos datos notifican a la pública), para poder viajar o juntarse con familiares.
No obstante, las restricciones siguen siendo las mismas que hace dos meses, o incluso más duras.
Si el objetivo es que haya restricciones duras para reducir los contagios a mínimos (como en abril), me parece bien. Pero que lo digan. Que no nos vendan la moto de que estamos MU MAL, MU MAL.
Si os fijáis, hace 1-2 meses estábamos fatal en comparación con los datos de ahora.
Fuente: https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa
Y no me vale la excusa de que ha habido menos tests por ser festivos:
1- porque no todos los días han sido festivos en las últimas semanas, y aun así los datos han sido mucho más bajos,
2- si tenemos en cuenta hasta el 18 de diciembre (que no había tantas vacaciones y festivos aún), los casos diarios ya estaban en menos de 10.000 diarios.
3- ha habido miles de tests PCR que la gente se ha hecho voluntariamente, especialmente en la sanidad privada (hay que tener en cuenta que esos datos notifican a la pública), para poder viajar o juntarse con familiares.
No obstante, las restricciones siguen siendo las mismas que hace dos meses, o incluso más duras.
Si el objetivo es que haya restricciones duras para reducir los contagios a mínimos (como en abril), me parece bien. Pero que lo digan. Que no nos vendan la moto de que estamos MU MAL, MU MAL.
Blu3Fiv3- Mensajes : 2193
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Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
Blu3Fiv3 escribió:Yo es que simplemente no entiendo cómo pueden vendernos una situación catastrófica cuando hemos bajado tanto los casos.
Si os fijáis, hace 1-2 meses estábamos fatal en comparación con los datos de ahora.
Fuente: https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa
Y no me vale la excusa de que ha habido menos tests por ser festivos:
1- porque no todos los días han sido festivos en las últimas semanas, y aun así los datos han sido mucho más bajos,
2- si tenemos en cuenta hasta el 18 de diciembre (que no había tantas vacaciones y festivos aún), los casos diarios ya estaban en menos de 10.000 diarios.
3- ha habido miles de tests PCR que la gente se ha hecho voluntariamente, especialmente en la sanidad privada (hay que tener en cuenta que esos datos notifican a la pública), para poder viajar o juntarse con familiares.
No obstante, las restricciones siguen siendo las mismas que hace dos meses, o incluso más duras.
Si el objetivo es que haya restricciones duras para reducir los contagios a mínimos (como en abril), me parece bien. Pero que lo digan. Que no nos vendan la moto de que estamos MU MAL, MU MAL.
Los contagiados siempre quedan al albur de que cada uno opine: que si menos tests, que si menos casos pero más positividad, que si menos positividad pero más casos, que si festivos sí o no, etc.
Lo que no da lugar a muchas interpretaciones son las hospitalizaciones en forma de nuevos ingresos. Ahí da lo mismo, porque no depende de si haces o no tests.
Esta es la serie nacional desde el 1 de octubre que, por supuesto, es susceptible de empeorar, pero creo que la gente agradecería que se le informara puntualmente de la situación real. O tal vez no, quién sabe.
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Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
mugu escribió:Blu3Fiv3 escribió:Yo es que simplemente no entiendo cómo pueden vendernos una situación catastrófica cuando hemos bajado tanto los casos.
Si os fijáis, hace 1-2 meses estábamos fatal en comparación con los datos de ahora.
Fuente: https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa
Y no me vale la excusa de que ha habido menos tests por ser festivos:
1- porque no todos los días han sido festivos en las últimas semanas, y aun así los datos han sido mucho más bajos,
2- si tenemos en cuenta hasta el 18 de diciembre (que no había tantas vacaciones y festivos aún), los casos diarios ya estaban en menos de 10.000 diarios.
3- ha habido miles de tests PCR que la gente se ha hecho voluntariamente, especialmente en la sanidad privada (hay que tener en cuenta que esos datos notifican a la pública), para poder viajar o juntarse con familiares.
No obstante, las restricciones siguen siendo las mismas que hace dos meses, o incluso más duras.
Si el objetivo es que haya restricciones duras para reducir los contagios a mínimos (como en abril), me parece bien. Pero que lo digan. Que no nos vendan la moto de que estamos MU MAL, MU MAL.
Los contagiados siempre quedan al albur de que cada uno opine: que si menos tests, que si menos casos pero más positividad, que si menos positividad pero más casos, que si festivos sí o no, etc.
Lo que no da lugar a muchas interpretaciones son las hospitalizaciones en forma de nuevos ingresos. Ahí da lo mismo, porque no depende de si haces o no tests.
Esta es la serie nacional desde el 1 de octubre que, por supuesto, es susceptible de empeorar, pero creo que la gente agradecería que se le informara puntualmente de la situación real. O tal vez no, quién sabe.
La situación real es:
A) Las cosas están mal.
B) Las cosas son susceptibles de empeorar.
El argumento B es siempre imbatible. Es el punto donde solo cabe elegir entre vivir con confianza o vivir con miedo, sabiendo además que ni la una ni la otra son garantía de nada. Es lo que tiene estar vivos.
Zoetrope- Mensajes : 18156
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Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
El Covidismo realmente se está convirtiendo en una religión, con sus obispos, curas, monaguillos, posiciones dogmáticas, creyentes, no creyentes, herejes...
Y al virus se la pela.
Y al virus se la pela.
CountryJoe- Mensajes : 11537
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Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
Esta un poco remolona esta tercera ola, no?
morley- Mensajes : 34214
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Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
morley escribió:Esta un poco remolona esta tercera ola, no?
Pero no íbamos a empezar la cuarta?
locovereas- Mensajes : 33252
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Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
CountryJoe escribió:El Covidismo realmente se está convirtiendo en una religión, con sus obispos, curas, monaguillos, posiciones dogmáticas, creyentes, no creyentes, herejes...
Y al virus se la pela.
Como sociedad no estamos reaccionando de modo muy diferente a lo que leemos sobre las pandemías de siglos pasados. Incidiendo en supuestas motivaciones morales del virus para alimentar supersticiones. Quizás con la diferencia de que entonces, como el desarrollo científico era menor, casi todo se ventilaba únicamente por la vía de las supersticiones. Ahora, como tenemos más desarrollo y conocimiento científico, lo que no implica necesariamente tener más certezas, la ciencia vale también como argumento para reforzar las supersticiones.
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Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
locovereas escribió:morley escribió:Esta un poco remolona esta tercera ola, no?
Pero no íbamos a empezar la cuarta?
Pues no se, pero hay que recordar que según Margarita vamos con retraso con respecto a Europa. Ahora empieza la que tuvo Europa en otoño. Así que la temible ola de invierno la tendremos en primavera.
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Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
Un peligroso brote que puede estar ligado con la cepa inglesa afecta... ¡a 130 personas del Sporting!
¿Se puede ser más alarmista que este titular?
Son 30 positivos y 100 contactos estrechos. Y no se sabe si es de la cepa "inglesa".
¿Se puede ser más alarmista que este titular?
Son 30 positivos y 100 contactos estrechos. Y no se sabe si es de la cepa "inglesa".
Poisonblade- Mensajes : 55529
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Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
Espero que le quiten 12 puntos al Sporting como sanción.Poisonblade escribió:Un peligroso brote que puede estar ligado con la cepa inglesa afecta... ¡a 130 personas del Sporting!
¿Se puede ser más alarmista que este titular?
Son 30 positivos y 100 contactos estrechos. Y no se sabe si es de la cepa "inglesa".
Por salud.
red_mosquito- Mensajes : 40956
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Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
https://twitter.com/MartinKulldorff/status/1344674447064784898
- Spoiler:
- https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/12/30/what-is-left-to-say/
What is left to say?
30th December 2020
I have not written much about COVID19 recently. What can be said? In my opinion the world has simply gone bonkers. The best description can be found in Dante’s Inferno, written many hundreds of years ago.
In it, Dante describes the outcasts, who took no side in the rebellion of angels. They live in the vestibule. Not in heaven, not in hell, forever unclassified. They reside on the shores of the Acheron. Naked and futile, they race around through a hellish mist in eternal pursuit of an elusive, wavering banner, symbolic of their pursuit of ever-shifting self-interest.
I find this description of the desperate pursuit of an elusive wavering banner rings rather true. This, it seems, is pretty much the place we have arrived at. Which banner have you decided to follow?
The ‘COVID19 s the most terrible infection ever, and we must do everything in our power to stop it, whatever the cost’ banner.
Or the ‘What on earth are we doing? This is no worse than a bad flu, and we are destroying the world economy, stripping away basic human rights and killing more people than we are saving’ banner.
There may be others.
Between these two, main, completely incompatible positions, lies the truth. It is in pretty poor shape. It has been crushed, and bent out of shape, smashed, and left as a broken heap in the corner. I search where I can, to find the fragments, in an attempt to bring together a picture that makes some kind of sense.
But what to believe? Who to believe?
I feel somewhat like Rene Descartes. In order to find the ineluctable truth he scraped everything away until he was left with ‘Cogito, ergo sum’. ‘I think, therefore I am.’
I have stripped away at the accuracy of PCR COVID19 testing. I found myself left with nothing I could make any sense of. I hacked down to establish the way that COVID19 deaths are recorded. All I found were assumptions and difficulties.
Did someone die with COVID19, of COVID19 – or did it have absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with COVID19? Who knows? I certainly don’t, and I wrote some of the death certificates myself.
Have we overestimated deaths, or underestimated deaths? I do not know … and so it goes on.
So, what do I know? I know that COVID19 exists – or I am as certain of this as I can be. Was it a natural mutation from a bat, or was it created in a laboratory? Well, I suppose it doesn’t really matter. It’s here, and there is no chance that any Government, anywhere, would ever admit responsibility for creating the damned thing. So, we will never know. If you asked me to bet, I would say it was created in a lab, then escaped by accident.
Is it deadlier than influenza? Well, it is certainly deadlier than some strains of influenza. Indeed, most strains. However, Spanish flu was estimated to have killed fifty million, when the world’s population was about a fifth of what it is now. So, COVID19 is definitely less deadly than that one. About as deadly as the influenzas of 1957 and 1967. Probably.
Will it mutate into something worse? Who knows.
Will the current vaccines work on mutated strains? Who knows.
Can it be transmitted by asymptomatic carriers? Who knows.
How effective are the current vaccines going to be? Who knows.
What are we left with?
At the beginning, I kept relatively quiet on how deadly COVID19 would prove to be. Because I didn’t know. The figures raged up and down. The infection fatality rate become a battle scene, with warriors lined up on either side to defend their positions.
I even got attacked by factcheckers, the self-appointed know-it-alls who are, it seems, capable of judging on all matters of scientific dispute. Truly, the Gods have descended to live amongst us. Those who can determine what is true, and what is not. No need for any further clinical trials, or any more scientific studies of any sort, ever. We just need to ask the Fact Checkers for the answer, to any given question.
Anyway, it appeared that tens of thousands died in some countries, almost none in others. What I was waiting to see, was the impact on the one outcome that you cannot alter, or fudge. The outcome that is overall mortality i.e. the chances of dying, of anything.
I did this because, when it comes to recording deaths from a specific illness, things can go in and out of fashion. A couple of years ago I looked at deaths from sepsis. At one time this was a condition of far lower priority. Doctors didn’t routinely search for it, or routinely record it, on death certificates.
Sepsis is an infection that gets into the blood, toxins are released, and people die. Everyone knew it happened. Or at least I hope they did.
Then, all of a sudden, there was a gigantic push to look for it more diligently, diagnose it more, treat it better. I think this was generally a good thing. Sepsis is eminently treatable, if you think to look for it, and lives can be saved. We now have initiatives like ‘Sepsis six’ and warnings that pop up on computers. ‘Have you considered sepsis,’ and suchlike. I love it … not. Because I do not love being told how to think, and do my job, by a computer algorithm programmed with ‘zero risk’ as their touchstone. But, hey ho.
In 2013, in the UK, a report was published by the health ombudsman ‘Time to Act – severe sepsis, rapid diagnosis and treatment saves lives.’ As the report stated.
‘Sepsis is a more common reason for hospital admission than heart attack – and has a higher mortality.’ The UK Sepsis Trust 1
That last statement is somewhat disingenuous, as many people with sepsis are very elderly, often with multiple morbidities, and suchlike. They were probably going to die, shortly, from something else.
Anyway. With all this activity, with all this increased sepsis recognition and treatment, you would expect the rate of deaths from sepsis to fall. It did not. The rate has gone up, by around 30% since 2013. Does this mean there is far more sepsis going about? Or, that it is just more often written on death certificates? I suggest the latter. I use this example, simply to make it clear that even the cause of death written on a death certificate is far from rock solid evidence.
With COVID19, this is a massive problem. In the UK, and several other countries if you have had a COVID19 positive test (which may, or may not, be accurate) and you die within twenty-eight days of that positive test, you will be recorded as a COVID19 death. I do not know much for sure about COVID19, but I do know that is just complete nonsense.
There are so many cases where – even if the COVID19 test was accurate – COVID19 would have had nothing whatsoever to do with the death. Another thing known, or at least we probably know, is that the vast majority of people who die had many other things wrong with them.
In the US, the Centre of Disease Control (CDC) found that ninety-four per cent of people who died of COVID19 ‘related deaths’ had other significant diseases (co-morbidities) 2. This ninety-four per-cent figures would only be the co-morbidities that were known about – who knows what lurked beneath? Especially as people stopped doing post-mortems (i.e., autopsies in the US).
So yes, they had COVID19 (or at least they had a positive test – which may not be the same thing), but they were often very old, and already severely ill. Using an extreme example, someone with terminal cancer who is a week from death, catches COVID19 in hospital, and dies. What killed them? The statistics say COVID19. I say, bollocks.
When I started in medicine, ‘bronchopneumonia’ (a bad chest infection) used to be known as the ‘old man’s friend.’ For those who were very old, and frail, often demented, lying in care homes, often incontinent, a chest infection represented a reasonably painless way to die.
Very often we would not actively treat it, instead we allowed for a peaceful death. Indeed, this still happens. Less so now, as someone, somewhere, often a relative from a country far, far, away – who has not visited for years – is far more likely to sue you.
Did they really die of bronchopneumonia? You could argue yes, you could argue no. Yes, it was the thing that finally pushed them over the edge. No, they were already slowly dying as their body gave out. In the end, what does anyone actually die of? My Scottish grannie, who lived to one hundred and two, used to say ‘they die frae want of breath.’ Entirely accurate, but, alas, also completely useless.
So, what you need to do, is look beyond what is written on death certificates. You need to look at what is happening to the overall mortality. Whilst you can argue endlessly, pointlessly, about specific causes of death. What you cannot argue about is whether or not someone is alive, or dead. Even I usually get this one right. No pulse, no breathing, no reaction of the pupils to light, no response to pain… and suchlike. Yup, dead. Now… what they die of? Um… let me think.
Thus, I have tended to look to EuroMOMO. The European Mortality Monitoring project. As they say, of themselves:
‘The overall objective of the original European Mortality Monitoring Project was to design a routine public health mortality monitoring system aimed at detecting and measuring, on a real-time basis, excess number of deaths related to influenza and other possible public health threats across participating European Countries.
Mortality is a basic indicator of health. Therefore, understanding its epidemiology is fundamental for effective public health planning and action.
Mortality monitoring becomes pivotal during influenza or other pandemics for several reasons. In a severe pandemic, mortality monitoring can be a robust way to monitor the pandemics progression and its public health impact when other systems are failing, due to an overburdened health care sector. Decision makers will require data on the pandemics impact and on deaths by age and geographical area in various stages of the pandemic. Mortality monitoring can provide such estimates, which will be important to guide and prioritize health service response and decision-making, i.e. use of antivirals and vaccines.’ 3
Here are the data that you can therefore, pretty much, fully rely on. It is where I go to see what is really happening across Europe. Not all of Europe, as some countries do not participate. However, there are more than enough, to get a good picture. It encompasses key countries such as Spain, Italy, the UK (split into four separate countries), Sweden and suchlike.
Here is the graph of overall mortality for all ages, in all countries. The graph starts at the beginning of 2017 and carries on to almost the end of 2020.
As you can see, in each winter there is an increase in deaths. In 2020, nothing much happened at the start of the year, then we had – what must have been – the COVID19 spike. The tall pointy bit around week 15.
It started in late March and was pretty much finished by mid-May. Now, we are in winter, and the usual winter spike appears. It seems to be around the same size as winter 2017/18. It also seems to have passed the peak and is now falling. But it could jump up again. [The figures in the most recent weeks can always be a bit inaccurate, as it can take some time for all the data to arrive]
Two things stand out. First, there was an obvious ‘COVID19 spike’. Second, what we are seeing at present does not differ greatly from previous years. The normal winter spike in deaths.
If we split this down into individual countries, this reasonably clear pattern falls apart.
Here are the figures from England
Unlike the first graph, the scale on the left is not absolute numbers. It is a thing called the Z-score. Which means standard deviation from the mean. Sorry, maths. If the Z-score goes above five, this means something significant is happening. The red, upper, dotted line is Z > 5. As you can see, despite the howls of anguish from England about COVID19 overwhelming the country, we are really not seeing much at all.
What of Sweden, that pariah country? They did not fully lock-down, the irresponsible fools (all they did was follow WHO guidance – by the way), and we are now told they are suffering terribly, they should have enforced far more rigid lockdown, their ‘experiment’ failed etc. etc. COVID19 shall have its vengeance. Or to quote Arnie – I’ll be back.
As you can see, nothing much happening in Sweden either.
Then, if you look further, there are anomalies all over the place. Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK, and did exactly the same things as the rest of the UK with regard to lockdown, masks etc. At least it did in the earlier part of the year. However, it shows a completely different pattern to England. Or, to be fully accurate, it shows no pattern at all. No waves, and nobody drowning.
What of Slovenia?
As you can see absolutely nothing happened earlier in the year in Slovenia. Now, it has the biggest spike of all – apart from, maybe, Switzerland. Earlier in the year it was held up as a great example of how brilliantly effective masks were. Now… you don’t hear so much about masks. Maybe masks only work in months beginning with M. [Maybe, whisper it, they don’t work at all].
So, what have I learned from euroMOMO? First that it appears to have made absolutely no difference if a country locked down hard, and early, or did not. Everyone points at Norway and Finland as examples of great and early government action, and how wonderful everything would have been if we had done the same.
Well, look up at Northern Ireland. Then look at Finland
Spot the difference. There is none.
Of course, much of the most heated debate surrounded what happened during the so-called first wave. Who dealt with it well, or badly. Now, everyone in Europe is doing much the same things. Lockdown, restrictions on travel, restrictions on meeting other people, everyone wearing masks, etc. etc. Yet some countries are having a new wave, and others are not.
There is a special prize for anyone who can match up the severity of restrictions in various countries, to the Z-score. I say this, because no correlation exists.
So, again, what have I learned about COVID19? I learned that all Governments are floundering about, all claiming to have exerted some sort of control over this disease and ignoring all evidence to the contrary. In truth, they have achieved nothing. As restrictions and lockdowns have become more severe, in many cases the number of infections has simply risen and risen, completely unaffected by anything that has been done.
The official solution is, of course, more restrictions. ‘We just haven’t restricted people enough!’ Sigh. When something doesn’t work, the answer is not to keep doing it with even greater fervour. The real answer is to stop doing it and try something else instead.
I have also learned that, in most countries, COVID19 appears to be seasonal. It went away – everywhere – in the summer. It came back in the autumn/winter, as various viruses do.
On its return is has been, generally, far less deadly. Much you would expect. The most vulnerable died on first exposure, and far fewer people had any resistance to it, at all. Now, a number of people do have some immunity, and may of the vulnerable are already dead.
Which means that, in this so-called second wave COVID19 is of no greater an issue than a moderately bad flu season.
If I were to recommend actions. I would recommend that we stop testing – unless someone is admitted to hospital and is seriously ill. Mass testing is simply causing mass panic and achieves absolutely nothing. At great cost. We should also just get on with our lives as before. We should just vaccinate those at greatest risk of dying, the elderly and vulnerable, and put this rather embarrassing episode of mad banner waving behind us.
Hopefully, in time, we will learn something. Which is that we should not, ever, run about panicking, following the madly waved banners… ever again. However, I suspect that we will. This pandemic is going to be a model for all mass panicking stupidity in the future. Because to do otherwise, would be to admit that we made a pig’s ear of it this time. Far too many powerful reputations at stake to allow that.
káiser- Mensajes : 51133
Fecha de inscripción : 25/04/2008
Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
Poisonblade escribió:Un peligroso brote que puede estar ligado con la cepa inglesa afecta... ¡a 130 personas del Sporting!
¿Se puede ser más alarmista que este titular?
Son 30 positivos y 100 contactos estrechos. Y no se sabe si es de la cepa "inglesa".
https://www.20minutos.es/deportes/noticia/4529902/0/brote-coronavirus-sporting-gijon-casos-asturias/
Aquí directamente ya dan a los contactos estrechos aislados como positivos.
Más periodismo.
Poisonblade- Mensajes : 55529
Fecha de inscripción : 06/03/2016
Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
Y no se lo que ha pasado, pero llamarles descerebrados, en los comentarios que leo, porque hayan originado un brote sin saber si han sido irresponsables o pura mala suerte...
Conozco un par de jubilados que solo han salido de casa para comprar y dar una vuelta al día con mascarilla. Pues se han contagiado.
Conozco un par de jubilados que solo han salido de casa para comprar y dar una vuelta al día con mascarilla. Pues se han contagiado.
Poisonblade- Mensajes : 55529
Fecha de inscripción : 06/03/2016
Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
red_mosquito escribió:Espero que le quiten 12 puntos al Sporting como sanción.Poisonblade escribió:Un peligroso brote que puede estar ligado con la cepa inglesa afecta... ¡a 130 personas del Sporting!
¿Se puede ser más alarmista que este titular?
Son 30 positivos y 100 contactos estrechos. Y no se sabe si es de la cepa "inglesa".
Por salud.
Damià- Mensajes : 114731
Fecha de inscripción : 22/04/2009
Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
Lo de la rave en Llinars del Vallés muestra lo absurdo que puede ser este confinamiento comarcal de los cojones durante las fiestas: ¿todos estos gabachos han dicho que iban a ver a familiares suyos para saltarse el cierre perimetral de Cataluña?
caniplaywithrainbows- Mensajes : 7850
Fecha de inscripción : 22/11/2017
Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
Excusez-moi, je suis venu voir ma rave... ¡Excusez-moi, mes parents!
caniplaywithrainbows- Mensajes : 7850
Fecha de inscripción : 22/11/2017
Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
caniplaywithrainbows escribió:Lo de la rave en Llinars del Vallés muestra lo absurdo que puede ser este confinamiento comarcal de los cojones durante las fiestas: ¿todos estos gabachos han dicho que iban a ver a familiares suyos para saltarse el cierre perimetral de Cataluña?
No están cerradas las fronteras internacionales y en Europa hay libre circulación. Viva el vino y las mujeres
Frusciante- Mensajes : 85085
Fecha de inscripción : 14/04/2012
Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
Frusciante escribió:caniplaywithrainbows escribió:Lo de la rave en Llinars del Vallés muestra lo absurdo que puede ser este confinamiento comarcal de los cojones durante las fiestas: ¿todos estos gabachos han dicho que iban a ver a familiares suyos para saltarse el cierre perimetral de Cataluña?
No están cerradas las fronteras internacionales y en Europa hay libre circulación. Viva el vino y las mujeres
Pues eso.Vive la vie!
caniplaywithrainbows- Mensajes : 7850
Fecha de inscripción : 22/11/2017
Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
káiser escribió:https://twitter.com/MartinKulldorff/status/1344674447064784898
- Spoiler:
https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/12/30/what-is-left-to-say/
What is left to say?
30th December 2020
I have not written much about COVID19 recently. What can be said? In my opinion the world has simply gone bonkers. The best description can be found in Dante’s Inferno, written many hundreds of years ago.
In it, Dante describes the outcasts, who took no side in the rebellion of angels. They live in the vestibule. Not in heaven, not in hell, forever unclassified. They reside on the shores of the Acheron. Naked and futile, they race around through a hellish mist in eternal pursuit of an elusive, wavering banner, symbolic of their pursuit of ever-shifting self-interest.
I find this description of the desperate pursuit of an elusive wavering banner rings rather true. This, it seems, is pretty much the place we have arrived at. Which banner have you decided to follow?
The ‘COVID19 s the most terrible infection ever, and we must do everything in our power to stop it, whatever the cost’ banner.
Or the ‘What on earth are we doing? This is no worse than a bad flu, and we are destroying the world economy, stripping away basic human rights and killing more people than we are saving’ banner.
There may be others.
Between these two, main, completely incompatible positions, lies the truth. It is in pretty poor shape. It has been crushed, and bent out of shape, smashed, and left as a broken heap in the corner. I search where I can, to find the fragments, in an attempt to bring together a picture that makes some kind of sense.
But what to believe? Who to believe?
I feel somewhat like Rene Descartes. In order to find the ineluctable truth he scraped everything away until he was left with ‘Cogito, ergo sum’. ‘I think, therefore I am.’
I have stripped away at the accuracy of PCR COVID19 testing. I found myself left with nothing I could make any sense of. I hacked down to establish the way that COVID19 deaths are recorded. All I found were assumptions and difficulties.
Did someone die with COVID19, of COVID19 – or did it have absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with COVID19? Who knows? I certainly don’t, and I wrote some of the death certificates myself.
Have we overestimated deaths, or underestimated deaths? I do not know … and so it goes on.
So, what do I know? I know that COVID19 exists – or I am as certain of this as I can be. Was it a natural mutation from a bat, or was it created in a laboratory? Well, I suppose it doesn’t really matter. It’s here, and there is no chance that any Government, anywhere, would ever admit responsibility for creating the damned thing. So, we will never know. If you asked me to bet, I would say it was created in a lab, then escaped by accident.
Is it deadlier than influenza? Well, it is certainly deadlier than some strains of influenza. Indeed, most strains. However, Spanish flu was estimated to have killed fifty million, when the world’s population was about a fifth of what it is now. So, COVID19 is definitely less deadly than that one. About as deadly as the influenzas of 1957 and 1967. Probably.
Will it mutate into something worse? Who knows.
Will the current vaccines work on mutated strains? Who knows.
Can it be transmitted by asymptomatic carriers? Who knows.
How effective are the current vaccines going to be? Who knows.
What are we left with?
At the beginning, I kept relatively quiet on how deadly COVID19 would prove to be. Because I didn’t know. The figures raged up and down. The infection fatality rate become a battle scene, with warriors lined up on either side to defend their positions.
I even got attacked by factcheckers, the self-appointed know-it-alls who are, it seems, capable of judging on all matters of scientific dispute. Truly, the Gods have descended to live amongst us. Those who can determine what is true, and what is not. No need for any further clinical trials, or any more scientific studies of any sort, ever. We just need to ask the Fact Checkers for the answer, to any given question.
Anyway, it appeared that tens of thousands died in some countries, almost none in others. What I was waiting to see, was the impact on the one outcome that you cannot alter, or fudge. The outcome that is overall mortality i.e. the chances of dying, of anything.
I did this because, when it comes to recording deaths from a specific illness, things can go in and out of fashion. A couple of years ago I looked at deaths from sepsis. At one time this was a condition of far lower priority. Doctors didn’t routinely search for it, or routinely record it, on death certificates.
Sepsis is an infection that gets into the blood, toxins are released, and people die. Everyone knew it happened. Or at least I hope they did.
Then, all of a sudden, there was a gigantic push to look for it more diligently, diagnose it more, treat it better. I think this was generally a good thing. Sepsis is eminently treatable, if you think to look for it, and lives can be saved. We now have initiatives like ‘Sepsis six’ and warnings that pop up on computers. ‘Have you considered sepsis,’ and suchlike. I love it … not. Because I do not love being told how to think, and do my job, by a computer algorithm programmed with ‘zero risk’ as their touchstone. But, hey ho.
In 2013, in the UK, a report was published by the health ombudsman ‘Time to Act – severe sepsis, rapid diagnosis and treatment saves lives.’ As the report stated.
‘Sepsis is a more common reason for hospital admission than heart attack – and has a higher mortality.’ The UK Sepsis Trust 1
That last statement is somewhat disingenuous, as many people with sepsis are very elderly, often with multiple morbidities, and suchlike. They were probably going to die, shortly, from something else.
Anyway. With all this activity, with all this increased sepsis recognition and treatment, you would expect the rate of deaths from sepsis to fall. It did not. The rate has gone up, by around 30% since 2013. Does this mean there is far more sepsis going about? Or, that it is just more often written on death certificates? I suggest the latter. I use this example, simply to make it clear that even the cause of death written on a death certificate is far from rock solid evidence.
With COVID19, this is a massive problem. In the UK, and several other countries if you have had a COVID19 positive test (which may, or may not, be accurate) and you die within twenty-eight days of that positive test, you will be recorded as a COVID19 death. I do not know much for sure about COVID19, but I do know that is just complete nonsense.
There are so many cases where – even if the COVID19 test was accurate – COVID19 would have had nothing whatsoever to do with the death. Another thing known, or at least we probably know, is that the vast majority of people who die had many other things wrong with them.
In the US, the Centre of Disease Control (CDC) found that ninety-four per cent of people who died of COVID19 ‘related deaths’ had other significant diseases (co-morbidities) 2. This ninety-four per-cent figures would only be the co-morbidities that were known about – who knows what lurked beneath? Especially as people stopped doing post-mortems (i.e., autopsies in the US).
So yes, they had COVID19 (or at least they had a positive test – which may not be the same thing), but they were often very old, and already severely ill. Using an extreme example, someone with terminal cancer who is a week from death, catches COVID19 in hospital, and dies. What killed them? The statistics say COVID19. I say, bollocks.
When I started in medicine, ‘bronchopneumonia’ (a bad chest infection) used to be known as the ‘old man’s friend.’ For those who were very old, and frail, often demented, lying in care homes, often incontinent, a chest infection represented a reasonably painless way to die.
Very often we would not actively treat it, instead we allowed for a peaceful death. Indeed, this still happens. Less so now, as someone, somewhere, often a relative from a country far, far, away – who has not visited for years – is far more likely to sue you.
Did they really die of bronchopneumonia? You could argue yes, you could argue no. Yes, it was the thing that finally pushed them over the edge. No, they were already slowly dying as their body gave out. In the end, what does anyone actually die of? My Scottish grannie, who lived to one hundred and two, used to say ‘they die frae want of breath.’ Entirely accurate, but, alas, also completely useless.
So, what you need to do, is look beyond what is written on death certificates. You need to look at what is happening to the overall mortality. Whilst you can argue endlessly, pointlessly, about specific causes of death. What you cannot argue about is whether or not someone is alive, or dead. Even I usually get this one right. No pulse, no breathing, no reaction of the pupils to light, no response to pain… and suchlike. Yup, dead. Now… what they die of? Um… let me think.
Thus, I have tended to look to EuroMOMO. The European Mortality Monitoring project. As they say, of themselves:
‘The overall objective of the original European Mortality Monitoring Project was to design a routine public health mortality monitoring system aimed at detecting and measuring, on a real-time basis, excess number of deaths related to influenza and other possible public health threats across participating European Countries.
Mortality is a basic indicator of health. Therefore, understanding its epidemiology is fundamental for effective public health planning and action.
Mortality monitoring becomes pivotal during influenza or other pandemics for several reasons. In a severe pandemic, mortality monitoring can be a robust way to monitor the pandemics progression and its public health impact when other systems are failing, due to an overburdened health care sector. Decision makers will require data on the pandemics impact and on deaths by age and geographical area in various stages of the pandemic. Mortality monitoring can provide such estimates, which will be important to guide and prioritize health service response and decision-making, i.e. use of antivirals and vaccines.’ 3
Here are the data that you can therefore, pretty much, fully rely on. It is where I go to see what is really happening across Europe. Not all of Europe, as some countries do not participate. However, there are more than enough, to get a good picture. It encompasses key countries such as Spain, Italy, the UK (split into four separate countries), Sweden and suchlike.
Here is the graph of overall mortality for all ages, in all countries. The graph starts at the beginning of 2017 and carries on to almost the end of 2020.
As you can see, in each winter there is an increase in deaths. In 2020, nothing much happened at the start of the year, then we had – what must have been – the COVID19 spike. The tall pointy bit around week 15.
It started in late March and was pretty much finished by mid-May. Now, we are in winter, and the usual winter spike appears. It seems to be around the same size as winter 2017/18. It also seems to have passed the peak and is now falling. But it could jump up again. [The figures in the most recent weeks can always be a bit inaccurate, as it can take some time for all the data to arrive]
Two things stand out. First, there was an obvious ‘COVID19 spike’. Second, what we are seeing at present does not differ greatly from previous years. The normal winter spike in deaths.
If we split this down into individual countries, this reasonably clear pattern falls apart.
Here are the figures from England
Unlike the first graph, the scale on the left is not absolute numbers. It is a thing called the Z-score. Which means standard deviation from the mean. Sorry, maths. If the Z-score goes above five, this means something significant is happening. The red, upper, dotted line is Z > 5. As you can see, despite the howls of anguish from England about COVID19 overwhelming the country, we are really not seeing much at all.
What of Sweden, that pariah country? They did not fully lock-down, the irresponsible fools (all they did was follow WHO guidance – by the way), and we are now told they are suffering terribly, they should have enforced far more rigid lockdown, their ‘experiment’ failed etc. etc. COVID19 shall have its vengeance. Or to quote Arnie – I’ll be back.
As you can see, nothing much happening in Sweden either.
Then, if you look further, there are anomalies all over the place. Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK, and did exactly the same things as the rest of the UK with regard to lockdown, masks etc. At least it did in the earlier part of the year. However, it shows a completely different pattern to England. Or, to be fully accurate, it shows no pattern at all. No waves, and nobody drowning.
What of Slovenia?
As you can see absolutely nothing happened earlier in the year in Slovenia. Now, it has the biggest spike of all – apart from, maybe, Switzerland. Earlier in the year it was held up as a great example of how brilliantly effective masks were. Now… you don’t hear so much about masks. Maybe masks only work in months beginning with M. [Maybe, whisper it, they don’t work at all].
So, what have I learned from euroMOMO? First that it appears to have made absolutely no difference if a country locked down hard, and early, or did not. Everyone points at Norway and Finland as examples of great and early government action, and how wonderful everything would have been if we had done the same.
Well, look up at Northern Ireland. Then look at Finland
Spot the difference. There is none.
Of course, much of the most heated debate surrounded what happened during the so-called first wave. Who dealt with it well, or badly. Now, everyone in Europe is doing much the same things. Lockdown, restrictions on travel, restrictions on meeting other people, everyone wearing masks, etc. etc. Yet some countries are having a new wave, and others are not.
There is a special prize for anyone who can match up the severity of restrictions in various countries, to the Z-score. I say this, because no correlation exists.
So, again, what have I learned about COVID19? I learned that all Governments are floundering about, all claiming to have exerted some sort of control over this disease and ignoring all evidence to the contrary. In truth, they have achieved nothing. As restrictions and lockdowns have become more severe, in many cases the number of infections has simply risen and risen, completely unaffected by anything that has been done.
The official solution is, of course, more restrictions. ‘We just haven’t restricted people enough!’ Sigh. When something doesn’t work, the answer is not to keep doing it with even greater fervour. The real answer is to stop doing it and try something else instead.
I have also learned that, in most countries, COVID19 appears to be seasonal. It went away – everywhere – in the summer. It came back in the autumn/winter, as various viruses do.
On its return is has been, generally, far less deadly. Much you would expect. The most vulnerable died on first exposure, and far fewer people had any resistance to it, at all. Now, a number of people do have some immunity, and may of the vulnerable are already dead.
Which means that, in this so-called second wave COVID19 is of no greater an issue than a moderately bad flu season.
If I were to recommend actions. I would recommend that we stop testing – unless someone is admitted to hospital and is seriously ill. Mass testing is simply causing mass panic and achieves absolutely nothing. At great cost. We should also just get on with our lives as before. We should just vaccinate those at greatest risk of dying, the elderly and vulnerable, and put this rather embarrassing episode of mad banner waving behind us.
Hopefully, in time, we will learn something. Which is that we should not, ever, run about panicking, following the madly waved banners… ever again. However, I suspect that we will. This pandemic is going to be a model for all mass panicking stupidity in the future. Because to do otherwise, would be to admit that we made a pig’s ear of it this time. Far too many powerful reputations at stake to allow that.
Very interesting.
jojomojo- Mensajes : 21007
Fecha de inscripción : 10/06/2012
Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
Los de la rave parecían de Cyberpunk 2077 con todos los bugs
Caffeine- Mensajes : 14217
Fecha de inscripción : 15/02/2015
Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
God save the queen. 1 penique por cada mascarilla que encontréis
https://twitter.com/crossbordercap/status/1339951817090805763?s=21
https://twitter.com/crossbordercap/status/1339951817090805763?s=21
Frusciante- Mensajes : 85085
Fecha de inscripción : 14/04/2012
Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
https://twitter.com/pmarsupia/status/1345371169118162945?s=21
Frusciante- Mensajes : 85085
Fecha de inscripción : 14/04/2012
Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
jojomojo escribió:káiser escribió:https://twitter.com/MartinKulldorff/status/1344674447064784898
- Spoiler:
https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/12/30/what-is-left-to-say/
What is left to say?
30th December 2020
I have not written much about COVID19 recently. What can be said? In my opinion the world has simply gone bonkers. The best description can be found in Dante’s Inferno, written many hundreds of years ago.
In it, Dante describes the outcasts, who took no side in the rebellion of angels. They live in the vestibule. Not in heaven, not in hell, forever unclassified. They reside on the shores of the Acheron. Naked and futile, they race around through a hellish mist in eternal pursuit of an elusive, wavering banner, symbolic of their pursuit of ever-shifting self-interest.
I find this description of the desperate pursuit of an elusive wavering banner rings rather true. This, it seems, is pretty much the place we have arrived at. Which banner have you decided to follow?
The ‘COVID19 s the most terrible infection ever, and we must do everything in our power to stop it, whatever the cost’ banner.
Or the ‘What on earth are we doing? This is no worse than a bad flu, and we are destroying the world economy, stripping away basic human rights and killing more people than we are saving’ banner.
There may be others.
Between these two, main, completely incompatible positions, lies the truth. It is in pretty poor shape. It has been crushed, and bent out of shape, smashed, and left as a broken heap in the corner. I search where I can, to find the fragments, in an attempt to bring together a picture that makes some kind of sense.
But what to believe? Who to believe?
I feel somewhat like Rene Descartes. In order to find the ineluctable truth he scraped everything away until he was left with ‘Cogito, ergo sum’. ‘I think, therefore I am.’
I have stripped away at the accuracy of PCR COVID19 testing. I found myself left with nothing I could make any sense of. I hacked down to establish the way that COVID19 deaths are recorded. All I found were assumptions and difficulties.
Did someone die with COVID19, of COVID19 – or did it have absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with COVID19? Who knows? I certainly don’t, and I wrote some of the death certificates myself.
Have we overestimated deaths, or underestimated deaths? I do not know … and so it goes on.
So, what do I know? I know that COVID19 exists – or I am as certain of this as I can be. Was it a natural mutation from a bat, or was it created in a laboratory? Well, I suppose it doesn’t really matter. It’s here, and there is no chance that any Government, anywhere, would ever admit responsibility for creating the damned thing. So, we will never know. If you asked me to bet, I would say it was created in a lab, then escaped by accident.
Is it deadlier than influenza? Well, it is certainly deadlier than some strains of influenza. Indeed, most strains. However, Spanish flu was estimated to have killed fifty million, when the world’s population was about a fifth of what it is now. So, COVID19 is definitely less deadly than that one. About as deadly as the influenzas of 1957 and 1967. Probably.
Will it mutate into something worse? Who knows.
Will the current vaccines work on mutated strains? Who knows.
Can it be transmitted by asymptomatic carriers? Who knows.
How effective are the current vaccines going to be? Who knows.
What are we left with?
At the beginning, I kept relatively quiet on how deadly COVID19 would prove to be. Because I didn’t know. The figures raged up and down. The infection fatality rate become a battle scene, with warriors lined up on either side to defend their positions.
I even got attacked by factcheckers, the self-appointed know-it-alls who are, it seems, capable of judging on all matters of scientific dispute. Truly, the Gods have descended to live amongst us. Those who can determine what is true, and what is not. No need for any further clinical trials, or any more scientific studies of any sort, ever. We just need to ask the Fact Checkers for the answer, to any given question.
Anyway, it appeared that tens of thousands died in some countries, almost none in others. What I was waiting to see, was the impact on the one outcome that you cannot alter, or fudge. The outcome that is overall mortality i.e. the chances of dying, of anything.
I did this because, when it comes to recording deaths from a specific illness, things can go in and out of fashion. A couple of years ago I looked at deaths from sepsis. At one time this was a condition of far lower priority. Doctors didn’t routinely search for it, or routinely record it, on death certificates.
Sepsis is an infection that gets into the blood, toxins are released, and people die. Everyone knew it happened. Or at least I hope they did.
Then, all of a sudden, there was a gigantic push to look for it more diligently, diagnose it more, treat it better. I think this was generally a good thing. Sepsis is eminently treatable, if you think to look for it, and lives can be saved. We now have initiatives like ‘Sepsis six’ and warnings that pop up on computers. ‘Have you considered sepsis,’ and suchlike. I love it … not. Because I do not love being told how to think, and do my job, by a computer algorithm programmed with ‘zero risk’ as their touchstone. But, hey ho.
In 2013, in the UK, a report was published by the health ombudsman ‘Time to Act – severe sepsis, rapid diagnosis and treatment saves lives.’ As the report stated.
‘Sepsis is a more common reason for hospital admission than heart attack – and has a higher mortality.’ The UK Sepsis Trust 1
That last statement is somewhat disingenuous, as many people with sepsis are very elderly, often with multiple morbidities, and suchlike. They were probably going to die, shortly, from something else.
Anyway. With all this activity, with all this increased sepsis recognition and treatment, you would expect the rate of deaths from sepsis to fall. It did not. The rate has gone up, by around 30% since 2013. Does this mean there is far more sepsis going about? Or, that it is just more often written on death certificates? I suggest the latter. I use this example, simply to make it clear that even the cause of death written on a death certificate is far from rock solid evidence.
With COVID19, this is a massive problem. In the UK, and several other countries if you have had a COVID19 positive test (which may, or may not, be accurate) and you die within twenty-eight days of that positive test, you will be recorded as a COVID19 death. I do not know much for sure about COVID19, but I do know that is just complete nonsense.
There are so many cases where – even if the COVID19 test was accurate – COVID19 would have had nothing whatsoever to do with the death. Another thing known, or at least we probably know, is that the vast majority of people who die had many other things wrong with them.
In the US, the Centre of Disease Control (CDC) found that ninety-four per cent of people who died of COVID19 ‘related deaths’ had other significant diseases (co-morbidities) 2. This ninety-four per-cent figures would only be the co-morbidities that were known about – who knows what lurked beneath? Especially as people stopped doing post-mortems (i.e., autopsies in the US).
So yes, they had COVID19 (or at least they had a positive test – which may not be the same thing), but they were often very old, and already severely ill. Using an extreme example, someone with terminal cancer who is a week from death, catches COVID19 in hospital, and dies. What killed them? The statistics say COVID19. I say, bollocks.
When I started in medicine, ‘bronchopneumonia’ (a bad chest infection) used to be known as the ‘old man’s friend.’ For those who were very old, and frail, often demented, lying in care homes, often incontinent, a chest infection represented a reasonably painless way to die.
Very often we would not actively treat it, instead we allowed for a peaceful death. Indeed, this still happens. Less so now, as someone, somewhere, often a relative from a country far, far, away – who has not visited for years – is far more likely to sue you.
Did they really die of bronchopneumonia? You could argue yes, you could argue no. Yes, it was the thing that finally pushed them over the edge. No, they were already slowly dying as their body gave out. In the end, what does anyone actually die of? My Scottish grannie, who lived to one hundred and two, used to say ‘they die frae want of breath.’ Entirely accurate, but, alas, also completely useless.
So, what you need to do, is look beyond what is written on death certificates. You need to look at what is happening to the overall mortality. Whilst you can argue endlessly, pointlessly, about specific causes of death. What you cannot argue about is whether or not someone is alive, or dead. Even I usually get this one right. No pulse, no breathing, no reaction of the pupils to light, no response to pain… and suchlike. Yup, dead. Now… what they die of? Um… let me think.
Thus, I have tended to look to EuroMOMO. The European Mortality Monitoring project. As they say, of themselves:
‘The overall objective of the original European Mortality Monitoring Project was to design a routine public health mortality monitoring system aimed at detecting and measuring, on a real-time basis, excess number of deaths related to influenza and other possible public health threats across participating European Countries.
Mortality is a basic indicator of health. Therefore, understanding its epidemiology is fundamental for effective public health planning and action.
Mortality monitoring becomes pivotal during influenza or other pandemics for several reasons. In a severe pandemic, mortality monitoring can be a robust way to monitor the pandemics progression and its public health impact when other systems are failing, due to an overburdened health care sector. Decision makers will require data on the pandemics impact and on deaths by age and geographical area in various stages of the pandemic. Mortality monitoring can provide such estimates, which will be important to guide and prioritize health service response and decision-making, i.e. use of antivirals and vaccines.’ 3
Here are the data that you can therefore, pretty much, fully rely on. It is where I go to see what is really happening across Europe. Not all of Europe, as some countries do not participate. However, there are more than enough, to get a good picture. It encompasses key countries such as Spain, Italy, the UK (split into four separate countries), Sweden and suchlike.
Here is the graph of overall mortality for all ages, in all countries. The graph starts at the beginning of 2017 and carries on to almost the end of 2020.
As you can see, in each winter there is an increase in deaths. In 2020, nothing much happened at the start of the year, then we had – what must have been – the COVID19 spike. The tall pointy bit around week 15.
It started in late March and was pretty much finished by mid-May. Now, we are in winter, and the usual winter spike appears. It seems to be around the same size as winter 2017/18. It also seems to have passed the peak and is now falling. But it could jump up again. [The figures in the most recent weeks can always be a bit inaccurate, as it can take some time for all the data to arrive]
Two things stand out. First, there was an obvious ‘COVID19 spike’. Second, what we are seeing at present does not differ greatly from previous years. The normal winter spike in deaths.
If we split this down into individual countries, this reasonably clear pattern falls apart.
Here are the figures from England
Unlike the first graph, the scale on the left is not absolute numbers. It is a thing called the Z-score. Which means standard deviation from the mean. Sorry, maths. If the Z-score goes above five, this means something significant is happening. The red, upper, dotted line is Z > 5. As you can see, despite the howls of anguish from England about COVID19 overwhelming the country, we are really not seeing much at all.
What of Sweden, that pariah country? They did not fully lock-down, the irresponsible fools (all they did was follow WHO guidance – by the way), and we are now told they are suffering terribly, they should have enforced far more rigid lockdown, their ‘experiment’ failed etc. etc. COVID19 shall have its vengeance. Or to quote Arnie – I’ll be back.
As you can see, nothing much happening in Sweden either.
Then, if you look further, there are anomalies all over the place. Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK, and did exactly the same things as the rest of the UK with regard to lockdown, masks etc. At least it did in the earlier part of the year. However, it shows a completely different pattern to England. Or, to be fully accurate, it shows no pattern at all. No waves, and nobody drowning.
What of Slovenia?
As you can see absolutely nothing happened earlier in the year in Slovenia. Now, it has the biggest spike of all – apart from, maybe, Switzerland. Earlier in the year it was held up as a great example of how brilliantly effective masks were. Now… you don’t hear so much about masks. Maybe masks only work in months beginning with M. [Maybe, whisper it, they don’t work at all].
So, what have I learned from euroMOMO? First that it appears to have made absolutely no difference if a country locked down hard, and early, or did not. Everyone points at Norway and Finland as examples of great and early government action, and how wonderful everything would have been if we had done the same.
Well, look up at Northern Ireland. Then look at Finland
Spot the difference. There is none.
Of course, much of the most heated debate surrounded what happened during the so-called first wave. Who dealt with it well, or badly. Now, everyone in Europe is doing much the same things. Lockdown, restrictions on travel, restrictions on meeting other people, everyone wearing masks, etc. etc. Yet some countries are having a new wave, and others are not.
There is a special prize for anyone who can match up the severity of restrictions in various countries, to the Z-score. I say this, because no correlation exists.
So, again, what have I learned about COVID19? I learned that all Governments are floundering about, all claiming to have exerted some sort of control over this disease and ignoring all evidence to the contrary. In truth, they have achieved nothing. As restrictions and lockdowns have become more severe, in many cases the number of infections has simply risen and risen, completely unaffected by anything that has been done.
The official solution is, of course, more restrictions. ‘We just haven’t restricted people enough!’ Sigh. When something doesn’t work, the answer is not to keep doing it with even greater fervour. The real answer is to stop doing it and try something else instead.
I have also learned that, in most countries, COVID19 appears to be seasonal. It went away – everywhere – in the summer. It came back in the autumn/winter, as various viruses do.
On its return is has been, generally, far less deadly. Much you would expect. The most vulnerable died on first exposure, and far fewer people had any resistance to it, at all. Now, a number of people do have some immunity, and may of the vulnerable are already dead.
Which means that, in this so-called second wave COVID19 is of no greater an issue than a moderately bad flu season.
If I were to recommend actions. I would recommend that we stop testing – unless someone is admitted to hospital and is seriously ill. Mass testing is simply causing mass panic and achieves absolutely nothing. At great cost. We should also just get on with our lives as before. We should just vaccinate those at greatest risk of dying, the elderly and vulnerable, and put this rather embarrassing episode of mad banner waving behind us.
Hopefully, in time, we will learn something. Which is that we should not, ever, run about panicking, following the madly waved banners… ever again. However, I suspect that we will. This pandemic is going to be a model for all mass panicking stupidity in the future. Because to do otherwise, would be to admit that we made a pig’s ear of it this time. Far too many powerful reputations at stake to allow that.
Very interesting.
Very bricking.
locovereas- Mensajes : 33252
Fecha de inscripción : 26/03/2008
Re: ☣ CORONAVIRUS ☣ - Minuto y Reconfinado - Vol.117: Vacunando Que Es Gerundio
pues firmar cosas sin saber lo que se esta firmando no se yo si es muy profesional.káiser escribió:https://twitter.com/MartinKulldorff/status/1344674447064784898
- Spoiler:
https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/12/30/what-is-left-to-say/
What is left to say?
30th December 2020
I have not written much about COVID19 recently. What can be said? In my opinion the world has simply gone bonkers. The best description can be found in Dante’s Inferno, written many hundreds of years ago.
In it, Dante describes the outcasts, who took no side in the rebellion of angels. They live in the vestibule. Not in heaven, not in hell, forever unclassified. They reside on the shores of the Acheron. Naked and futile, they race around through a hellish mist in eternal pursuit of an elusive, wavering banner, symbolic of their pursuit of ever-shifting self-interest.
I find this description of the desperate pursuit of an elusive wavering banner rings rather true. This, it seems, is pretty much the place we have arrived at. Which banner have you decided to follow?
The ‘COVID19 s the most terrible infection ever, and we must do everything in our power to stop it, whatever the cost’ banner.
Or the ‘What on earth are we doing? This is no worse than a bad flu, and we are destroying the world economy, stripping away basic human rights and killing more people than we are saving’ banner.
There may be others.
Between these two, main, completely incompatible positions, lies the truth. It is in pretty poor shape. It has been crushed, and bent out of shape, smashed, and left as a broken heap in the corner. I search where I can, to find the fragments, in an attempt to bring together a picture that makes some kind of sense.
But what to believe? Who to believe?
I feel somewhat like Rene Descartes. In order to find the ineluctable truth he scraped everything away until he was left with ‘Cogito, ergo sum’. ‘I think, therefore I am.’
I have stripped away at the accuracy of PCR COVID19 testing. I found myself left with nothing I could make any sense of. I hacked down to establish the way that COVID19 deaths are recorded. All I found were assumptions and difficulties.
Did someone die with COVID19, of COVID19 – or did it have absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with COVID19? Who knows? I certainly don’t, and I wrote some of the death certificates myself.
Have we overestimated deaths, or underestimated deaths? I do not know … and so it goes on.
So, what do I know? I know that COVID19 exists – or I am as certain of this as I can be. Was it a natural mutation from a bat, or was it created in a laboratory? Well, I suppose it doesn’t really matter. It’s here, and there is no chance that any Government, anywhere, would ever admit responsibility for creating the damned thing. So, we will never know. If you asked me to bet, I would say it was created in a lab, then escaped by accident.
Is it deadlier than influenza? Well, it is certainly deadlier than some strains of influenza. Indeed, most strains. However, Spanish flu was estimated to have killed fifty million, when the world’s population was about a fifth of what it is now. So, COVID19 is definitely less deadly than that one. About as deadly as the influenzas of 1957 and 1967. Probably.
Will it mutate into something worse? Who knows.
Will the current vaccines work on mutated strains? Who knows.
Can it be transmitted by asymptomatic carriers? Who knows.
How effective are the current vaccines going to be? Who knows.
What are we left with?
At the beginning, I kept relatively quiet on how deadly COVID19 would prove to be. Because I didn’t know. The figures raged up and down. The infection fatality rate become a battle scene, with warriors lined up on either side to defend their positions.
I even got attacked by factcheckers, the self-appointed know-it-alls who are, it seems, capable of judging on all matters of scientific dispute. Truly, the Gods have descended to live amongst us. Those who can determine what is true, and what is not. No need for any further clinical trials, or any more scientific studies of any sort, ever. We just need to ask the Fact Checkers for the answer, to any given question.
Anyway, it appeared that tens of thousands died in some countries, almost none in others. What I was waiting to see, was the impact on the one outcome that you cannot alter, or fudge. The outcome that is overall mortality i.e. the chances of dying, of anything.
I did this because, when it comes to recording deaths from a specific illness, things can go in and out of fashion. A couple of years ago I looked at deaths from sepsis. At one time this was a condition of far lower priority. Doctors didn’t routinely search for it, or routinely record it, on death certificates.
Sepsis is an infection that gets into the blood, toxins are released, and people die. Everyone knew it happened. Or at least I hope they did.
Then, all of a sudden, there was a gigantic push to look for it more diligently, diagnose it more, treat it better. I think this was generally a good thing. Sepsis is eminently treatable, if you think to look for it, and lives can be saved. We now have initiatives like ‘Sepsis six’ and warnings that pop up on computers. ‘Have you considered sepsis,’ and suchlike. I love it … not. Because I do not love being told how to think, and do my job, by a computer algorithm programmed with ‘zero risk’ as their touchstone. But, hey ho.
In 2013, in the UK, a report was published by the health ombudsman ‘Time to Act – severe sepsis, rapid diagnosis and treatment saves lives.’ As the report stated.
‘Sepsis is a more common reason for hospital admission than heart attack – and has a higher mortality.’ The UK Sepsis Trust 1
That last statement is somewhat disingenuous, as many people with sepsis are very elderly, often with multiple morbidities, and suchlike. They were probably going to die, shortly, from something else.
Anyway. With all this activity, with all this increased sepsis recognition and treatment, you would expect the rate of deaths from sepsis to fall. It did not. The rate has gone up, by around 30% since 2013. Does this mean there is far more sepsis going about? Or, that it is just more often written on death certificates? I suggest the latter. I use this example, simply to make it clear that even the cause of death written on a death certificate is far from rock solid evidence.
With COVID19, this is a massive problem. In the UK, and several other countries if you have had a COVID19 positive test (which may, or may not, be accurate) and you die within twenty-eight days of that positive test, you will be recorded as a COVID19 death. I do not know much for sure about COVID19, but I do know that is just complete nonsense.
There are so many cases where – even if the COVID19 test was accurate – COVID19 would have had nothing whatsoever to do with the death. Another thing known, or at least we probably know, is that the vast majority of people who die had many other things wrong with them.
In the US, the Centre of Disease Control (CDC) found that ninety-four per cent of people who died of COVID19 ‘related deaths’ had other significant diseases (co-morbidities) 2. This ninety-four per-cent figures would only be the co-morbidities that were known about – who knows what lurked beneath? Especially as people stopped doing post-mortems (i.e., autopsies in the US).
So yes, they had COVID19 (or at least they had a positive test – which may not be the same thing), but they were often very old, and already severely ill. Using an extreme example, someone with terminal cancer who is a week from death, catches COVID19 in hospital, and dies. What killed them? The statistics say COVID19. I say, bollocks.
When I started in medicine, ‘bronchopneumonia’ (a bad chest infection) used to be known as the ‘old man’s friend.’ For those who were very old, and frail, often demented, lying in care homes, often incontinent, a chest infection represented a reasonably painless way to die.
Very often we would not actively treat it, instead we allowed for a peaceful death. Indeed, this still happens. Less so now, as someone, somewhere, often a relative from a country far, far, away – who has not visited for years – is far more likely to sue you.
Did they really die of bronchopneumonia? You could argue yes, you could argue no. Yes, it was the thing that finally pushed them over the edge. No, they were already slowly dying as their body gave out. In the end, what does anyone actually die of? My Scottish grannie, who lived to one hundred and two, used to say ‘they die frae want of breath.’ Entirely accurate, but, alas, also completely useless.
So, what you need to do, is look beyond what is written on death certificates. You need to look at what is happening to the overall mortality. Whilst you can argue endlessly, pointlessly, about specific causes of death. What you cannot argue about is whether or not someone is alive, or dead. Even I usually get this one right. No pulse, no breathing, no reaction of the pupils to light, no response to pain… and suchlike. Yup, dead. Now… what they die of? Um… let me think.
Thus, I have tended to look to EuroMOMO. The European Mortality Monitoring project. As they say, of themselves:
‘The overall objective of the original European Mortality Monitoring Project was to design a routine public health mortality monitoring system aimed at detecting and measuring, on a real-time basis, excess number of deaths related to influenza and other possible public health threats across participating European Countries.
Mortality is a basic indicator of health. Therefore, understanding its epidemiology is fundamental for effective public health planning and action.
Mortality monitoring becomes pivotal during influenza or other pandemics for several reasons. In a severe pandemic, mortality monitoring can be a robust way to monitor the pandemics progression and its public health impact when other systems are failing, due to an overburdened health care sector. Decision makers will require data on the pandemics impact and on deaths by age and geographical area in various stages of the pandemic. Mortality monitoring can provide such estimates, which will be important to guide and prioritize health service response and decision-making, i.e. use of antivirals and vaccines.’ 3
Here are the data that you can therefore, pretty much, fully rely on. It is where I go to see what is really happening across Europe. Not all of Europe, as some countries do not participate. However, there are more than enough, to get a good picture. It encompasses key countries such as Spain, Italy, the UK (split into four separate countries), Sweden and suchlike.
Here is the graph of overall mortality for all ages, in all countries. The graph starts at the beginning of 2017 and carries on to almost the end of 2020.
As you can see, in each winter there is an increase in deaths. In 2020, nothing much happened at the start of the year, then we had – what must have been – the COVID19 spike. The tall pointy bit around week 15.
It started in late March and was pretty much finished by mid-May. Now, we are in winter, and the usual winter spike appears. It seems to be around the same size as winter 2017/18. It also seems to have passed the peak and is now falling. But it could jump up again. [The figures in the most recent weeks can always be a bit inaccurate, as it can take some time for all the data to arrive]
Two things stand out. First, there was an obvious ‘COVID19 spike’. Second, what we are seeing at present does not differ greatly from previous years. The normal winter spike in deaths.
If we split this down into individual countries, this reasonably clear pattern falls apart.
Here are the figures from England
Unlike the first graph, the scale on the left is not absolute numbers. It is a thing called the Z-score. Which means standard deviation from the mean. Sorry, maths. If the Z-score goes above five, this means something significant is happening. The red, upper, dotted line is Z > 5. As you can see, despite the howls of anguish from England about COVID19 overwhelming the country, we are really not seeing much at all.
What of Sweden, that pariah country? They did not fully lock-down, the irresponsible fools (all they did was follow WHO guidance – by the way), and we are now told they are suffering terribly, they should have enforced far more rigid lockdown, their ‘experiment’ failed etc. etc. COVID19 shall have its vengeance. Or to quote Arnie – I’ll be back.
As you can see, nothing much happening in Sweden either.
Then, if you look further, there are anomalies all over the place. Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK, and did exactly the same things as the rest of the UK with regard to lockdown, masks etc. At least it did in the earlier part of the year. However, it shows a completely different pattern to England. Or, to be fully accurate, it shows no pattern at all. No waves, and nobody drowning.
What of Slovenia?
As you can see absolutely nothing happened earlier in the year in Slovenia. Now, it has the biggest spike of all – apart from, maybe, Switzerland. Earlier in the year it was held up as a great example of how brilliantly effective masks were. Now… you don’t hear so much about masks. Maybe masks only work in months beginning with M. [Maybe, whisper it, they don’t work at all].
So, what have I learned from euroMOMO? First that it appears to have made absolutely no difference if a country locked down hard, and early, or did not. Everyone points at Norway and Finland as examples of great and early government action, and how wonderful everything would have been if we had done the same.
Well, look up at Northern Ireland. Then look at Finland
Spot the difference. There is none.
Of course, much of the most heated debate surrounded what happened during the so-called first wave. Who dealt with it well, or badly. Now, everyone in Europe is doing much the same things. Lockdown, restrictions on travel, restrictions on meeting other people, everyone wearing masks, etc. etc. Yet some countries are having a new wave, and others are not.
There is a special prize for anyone who can match up the severity of restrictions in various countries, to the Z-score. I say this, because no correlation exists.
So, again, what have I learned about COVID19? I learned that all Governments are floundering about, all claiming to have exerted some sort of control over this disease and ignoring all evidence to the contrary. In truth, they have achieved nothing. As restrictions and lockdowns have become more severe, in many cases the number of infections has simply risen and risen, completely unaffected by anything that has been done.
The official solution is, of course, more restrictions. ‘We just haven’t restricted people enough!’ Sigh. When something doesn’t work, the answer is not to keep doing it with even greater fervour. The real answer is to stop doing it and try something else instead.
I have also learned that, in most countries, COVID19 appears to be seasonal. It went away – everywhere – in the summer. It came back in the autumn/winter, as various viruses do.
On its return is has been, generally, far less deadly. Much you would expect. The most vulnerable died on first exposure, and far fewer people had any resistance to it, at all. Now, a number of people do have some immunity, and may of the vulnerable are already dead.
Which means that, in this so-called second wave COVID19 is of no greater an issue than a moderately bad flu season.
If I were to recommend actions. I would recommend that we stop testing – unless someone is admitted to hospital and is seriously ill. Mass testing is simply causing mass panic and achieves absolutely nothing. At great cost. We should also just get on with our lives as before. We should just vaccinate those at greatest risk of dying, the elderly and vulnerable, and put this rather embarrassing episode of mad banner waving behind us.
Hopefully, in time, we will learn something. Which is that we should not, ever, run about panicking, following the madly waved banners… ever again. However, I suspect that we will. This pandemic is going to be a model for all mass panicking stupidity in the future. Because to do otherwise, would be to admit that we made a pig’s ear of it this time. Far too many powerful reputations at stake to allow that.
Eric Sachs- Mensajes : 70538
Fecha de inscripción : 06/03/2012
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